On paper, Week 0 looked unappealing.
All four games sported double-digit spreads, and two of the favorites were laying more than three touchdowns. Once the dust settled, all four ‘dogs had covered, one had won outright and two nearly pulled off the upset.
Steam chasers were crushed yesterday. All four games moved more than a field goal to one side, and if a bettor blindly followed the movement they went 1-3 ATS. Even those who shape the market took it on the chin (Let the never-ending debate about CLV begin once more).
As we enter the first full week of college football, it is important to note that these numbers have been pounded into shape. The big games have been up for months, and the other contests have been added along the way. There is not much meat left on the bone at this point.
But, what fun would it be if we didn’t try to pick the carcasses of the betting board apart?
For this week, we will just go over some of the biggest line moves we have seen in the offseason.
Moving forward, this column will serve as your first look at the ensuing week of college football.
Each Sunday books around the country post opening numbers for college. Here, we will give you the initial line moves seen when the openers appear. It will be a great look at how the market shapers view certain teams, what the market impact of injuries are and more.
For Week 1 college football betting splits, additional articles, and more, visit our College Football Hub.
WEEK 1 LINE MOVES
Florida International Panthers @ Indiana Hoosiers
Open: IND (-18.5, 51.5) | Current: IND (-21.5, 51)
Indiana was a popular wager to go over its win total in the offseason, and that support seems to be translating to the regular season. Curt Cignetti is in his first season as head coach, and Kurtis Rourke is one of the stronger transfer quarterbacks in the country. FIU does have eight starters back on offense and a returning quarterback in Keyone Jenkins. However, the market is behind Indiana to start the season, and bettors have missed the boat on the favorite here.
UConn Huskies @ Maryland Terrapins
Open: MARY (-24.5, 47.5) | Current: MARY (-20.5, 45.5)
Maryland is in a season of change, so it isn’t a shock to see the market move against it in the first week. As of now, the starting quarterback for the Terrapins is unknown. Billy Edwards, MJ Morris and Cameron Edge are considered the top candidates for the job. Given the uncertainty around the most important position, the market seems to be downgrading Maryland. That being said, UConn does deserve some support. The Huskies bring back 13 starters – eight on defense – and Jim Mora is in his third season at the helm.
Kennesaw State Owls @ UTSA Roadrunners
Open: UTSA (-21.5, 49.5) | Current: UTSA (-24.5, 49.5)
By all accounts Kennesaw State is going to be one of the worst– if not the worst – teams in the country. If that is true, seeing the market jump up to fade the Owls early in the season makes sense. Steve Makinen’s projections have this as a 29-point spread, so we could see even more movement in favor of UTSA before kick-off this week.
Ohio Bobcats @ Syracuse Orange
Open: SYR (-13, 47.5) | Current: SYR (-17.5, 47)
Ohio is in the midst of a total rebuild. The Bobcats only have six returning starters, Kurtis Rourke is gone and the program’s top three tacklers from last season – a group that allowed just 15.8 points per game – are gone. Syracuse is a team many believe could be much better this season. The Orange have 17 starters back and a big transfer in Kyle McCord at quarterback.
Georgia State Panthers @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Open: GT (-18.5, 57.5) | Current: GT (-22, 57.5)
Georgia Tech scored a massive upset win over Florida State last week. The Yellow Jackets limited the Seminoles to 291 total yards and 3.2 yards per carry. The market was all over Georgia Tech in Week 0, so it shouldn’t come as a shock that we have seen a move in its direction once again. Many will likely look at this as a “letdown spot” after the win on Saturday, and that could lead to a line move back toward Georgia State..
James Madison Dukes @ Charlotte 49ers
Open: JMU (-11.5, 51.5) | Current: JMU (-6.5, 51.5)
James Madison was 11-2 SU/8-5 ATS last season, and one of the best stories in college football. This season, head coach Curt Cignetti and quarterback Jordan McCloud are gone. Seventeen starters are back, but how much did Cignetti and McCloud add wins at the margins for this program? The market seems to believe oddsmakers are overvaluing this Dukes squad, and we get a five-point line move toward the underdog here as a result.
Boise State Broncos @ Georgia Southern Eagles
Open: BSU (-10, 57.5) | Current: BSU (-13, 56.5)
The market has tacked on a field goal to the point spread for Boise State which is in a true road environment on Saturday. The Broncos have been the darling Group of Five team in the offseason. This movement toward them matches the support Boise State saw in future markets such as win total, conference title championship and more. The Broncos will likely be a well supported team early.
Colorado State Rams @ Texas Longhorns
Open: TEX (-36.5, 59) | Current: TEX (-32.5, 59.5)
Texas’ top running back – CJ Baxter – as well as its potential third-string rusher – Christian Clark – were lost to injury in recent weeks. Those injuries alone are not worth a four-point move against a Group of Five opponent. There was some skepticism around the Longhorns already, as they lost quite a bit of production from last season’s playoff team.
Nevada Wolf Pack @ Troy Trojans
Open: TROY (-15.5, 47) | Current: TROY (-9.5, 46)
Nevada showed some fight in its loss to SMU on Saturday. DraftKings hung this lineup at Troy -12 after the Wolf Pack’s loss to the Mustangs, and the market still pushed it down 2.5 points. This same market moved the line for Nevada against SMU, a full touchdown in the direction of the Mustangs. A bump like this seems like an overreaction on its surface.
UCLA Bruins @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Open: UCLA (-18.5, 55.5) | Current: UCLA (-13.5, 55.5)
This line has been dropping since it was hung in the middle of the summer. However, the Rainbow Warriors had yet to play a game. Now, we have seen Hawaii play – an ugly win over Delaware State as 40.5-point favorites – and they are without leading receiver Steven McBride. Perhaps steam chasers drop this line even more, but I will venture a guess that we close at -14 or higher in favor of UCLA.
Open: TAM (PK, 49) | Current: TAM (-2.5, 46.5)
Notre Dame was already rebuilding its offensive line this season, then it lost starting left tackle Charles Jagusah to a torn pectoral muscle. It is a massive issue to go on the road with a rebuilt offensive line and face one of the best front sevens in the country. This is why we have seen this number get to -3 at multiple shops, and it will likely close there on Saturday.
